Analysis - Alex Layne: BLOOMINGTON, IN | Today's severe weather outbreak has developed from a scattered threat of isolated thunderstorms and a marginal potential for severe weather to a general, Level 3/5 SISR (In-House Weather Outlook System).
Wednesday, March 4, 2026 Storm Intensity Scale Report (SISR)
Level 3 – Strong / Organized Storm [CHARLIE] [CHARGER] Intensity: Well-structured, high energy, capable of severe weather. Potential Threats: Damaging winds (50-70 mph), large hail (1-2"), possible weak tornado (EF0-EF1). Likelihood of Severe Weather: Moderate to high (30-60%). Spotter Action: Active spotting; relay critical updates.
SISR is an in-house weather intensity prediction system which is in Early Alpha. For the most accurate severe weather predictions, please refer to weather.gov. SISR is not currently capable of assessing the threat from meteorological phenomena outside of squall lines, supercells, and standard midwestern spring/summer severe weather tracking. SISR will be upgraded in the future to reflect winter weather, and much more weather phenomena.
I believe today has the potential to outperform the models, potentially throwing out stronger storms than are being modeled. This is not confirmed, however the trends I see are very similar to days which have outperformed models. The models are finnicky, and you must utilize them with a wide tolerance. The general risk and threat from today has been modeled beautifully, however there are potential factors which could come into play which could meaningfully affect today's outlook.
Don't be scared, be prepared!
I will be live at 3PM ET today to cover the severe weather outbreak in full, live, complete with live radar analysis, Reacting to Ryan Hall's stream, answering questions about chatter's weather situations (new anonymous report system has been released!), and much more! Come join us!
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