Since Alex is off stream today, Ryan Hall is still live today and covering the situation, so we will funnel everyone to Ryan for today. He is currently LIVE here: Ryan Hall, Y'all LIVE
The HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) model is presenting development of an interesting line of storms over the Slight Risk and Marginal outlook areas. Storms which can produce hail and damaging winds will develop throughout the night. BT Weather has issued a Level 3 SISR rating for tonight's storms, which means brief tornadoes could also be an issue tonight. Tornadoes are much more likely for the southern portions of the Slight Risk area than the northern portions near Pennsylvania, though nothing has been taken off the table tonight for any region in the outlook zones.
We're keeping an eye on Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania tonight, as this area is highly populated and has a higher risk than normal for severe weather. This area is not as used to severe weather as the central and southern US. We will be issuing updates all night as things develop.
Today begins day #4 of severe weather. This outbreak will be less organized than Friday's severe weather. Posts coming throughout the night.
Ryan Hall is live with full coverage! We will not be live today to give Alex and crew the break they need from the 2026 opening storm spotting week.
BT Weather is now LIVE! Click here to watch! You can also watch the stream and chat at the bottom of the BT Weather page!
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Ryan Hall will also be covering the severe weather outbreak today. BT Weather endorses Ryan Hall as one of the leading meterologists on the internet. His analysis and project is revolutionary in the world of meteorology and weather. If you haven't checked him out, or you want a second stream to watch today, Ryan Hall is the best choice for expert severe weather analysis! We will also be reacting to his stream live on BT Weather today during the severe weather outbreak!
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Analysis - Alex Layne: BLOOMINGTON, IN | Today's severe weather outbreak has developed from a scattered threat of isolated thunderstorms and a marginal potential for severe weather to a general, Level 3/5 SISR (In-House Weather Outlook System).
Wednesday, March 4, 2026 Storm Intensity Scale Report (SISR)
Level 3 – Strong / Organized Storm [CHARLIE] [CHARGER] Intensity: Well-structured, high energy, capable of severe weather. Potential Threats: Damaging winds (50-70 mph), large hail (1-2"), possible weak tornado (EF0-EF1). Likelihood of Severe Weather: Moderate to high (30-60%). Spotter Action: Active spotting; relay critical updates.
SISR is an in-house weather intensity prediction system which is in Early Alpha. For the most accurate severe weather predictions, please refer to weather.gov. SISR is not currently capable of assessing the threat from meteorological phenomena outside of squall lines, supercells, and standard midwestern spring/summer severe weather tracking. SISR will be upgraded in the future to reflect winter weather, and much more weather phenomena.
I believe today has the potential to outperform the models, potentially throwing out stronger storms than are being modeled. This is not confirmed, however the trends I see are very similar to days which have outperformed models. The models are finnicky, and you must utilize them with a wide tolerance. The general risk and threat from today has been modeled beautifully, however there are potential factors which could come into play which could meaningfully affect today's outlook.
Don't be scared, be prepared!
I will be live at 3PM ET today to cover the severe weather outbreak in full, live, complete with live radar analysis, Reacting to Ryan Hall's stream, answering questions about chatter's weather situations (new anonymous report system has been released!), and much more! Come join us!
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A risk of isolated tornado production has been outlined in the latest NWS Day 1 Convective Outlook. Today's severe weather outbreak seems to be intensifying by the hour. More reporting coming throughout the day today, and of course, BT Weather will be live today at 3PM ET for full coverage of the severe weather situation.
Late March 2025: A similar pattern caused a regional severe weather outbreak with tornadoes, heavy rain, and strong winds. Now it is 2026, and that same pattern seems to be revealing itself this week. If last year is any model, this March could produce a similar strengthed start to the 2026 Severe Weather Season.
The Jet Max, where winds exceed up to 200MPH 4-8 miles above the Earth's surface, is circled in orange, acts as a conveyer belt for the storms, with current configuration driving rapid intensification of systems in the region. This could lead to scattered strong to severe thunderstoms, and potentially a major severe weather outbreak.
Wednesday, March 4 begins the 2026 severe weather season in earnest. Wednesday is also the beginning of our coverage week. Storms are projected to occur all the way into next week across the US.
Tomorrow's predicted severe weather situation is slowly intensifying, and the concern zone has expanded. The Slight Risk zone has expanded, while damaging wind becomes a main threat alongside hail.
Don't be scared, be prepared! Join our Wednesday severe weather coverage and stay informed! https://www.twitch.tv/breakytime
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS
TO THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon and evening on Wednesday from north-central Texas and
southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas, southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois. Large hail and occasional wind damage will be
the primary threats.
A slight risk for severe weather has been issued for the Dallas region of Texas, as well as southeastern Oklahoma and Northwestern Arkansas. The marginal risk zone has expanded to encompass portions of Illinois and Indiana. More information will be provided in the coming hours as the National Weather Service crunches the data.